2010: The Best of Times or the Worst?

via Wisdom of Rich Dad by Bernard on 2/3/10

Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”

The following are a few of my predictions and reasons behind them…

 Prediction #1:  The real estate market will crash again.

Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:

 1.  In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed. 

2.  The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low — around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm.  In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.

3.  The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?

4.  In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?

5.  Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?

6.  The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close — permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.

My prediction:  Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.

Other things I am watching for in 2010:

1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.

2.  When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.

3.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.

4.  The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less. 

5.  The deficit will increase.  The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.

6.  Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof. 

7.  Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.

The Best of Times

I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.

The following are the bright spots for people who are prepared.

Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010.

The following recaps the year-end prices of gold and silver:

            YEAR             GOLD                                    SILVER
            2000               $  273                         $  4.57
            2001               $  279                         $  4.57
            2002               $  348                         $  4.78                        
            2003               $  416                         $  5.92
            2004               $  438                         $  6.79
            2005               $  518                         $  8.80
            2006               $  638                        $12.78
            2007               $  838                        $14.77
            2008               $  882                        $11.33 
            2009              $1100  (approx)     $17.50  (approx)

In 2009, the Dow rose approximately 18%. Gold rose approximately 25%. Silver rose approximately 50%. 

By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.

Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.

Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.

My Personal Investments

As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”

The following are things I have done to prepare myself:

1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income. 

2.  2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects.  Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.

3.  My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes.  Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.

4.  I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.

5.  I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.

6.  With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.

7.  In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.

In Conclusion

A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy — till the bubble burst in 1990.  Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.

We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food — not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.

Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.

Want to help Haiti? Give cash

via CNN.com on 1/21/10

Earthquake-devastated Haitians need donations of cash -- not clothes, food, medicine, or other relief supplies, as well intended as they might be, aid groups said Thursday.

“If life were fair, Elvis would be alive and all the impersonators would be dead.”– Johnny Carson

In Part 1 of this series, I discussed some of the ways that life deals us a bum hand, and some of the ways we can deal with that. In this post, I continue the list, starting with some oddnesses about factors that seem to play as big a role, if not even bigger, as individual merit in determining or life success.

1. Most CEOs are tall.

90% of Fortune 500 CEOs are of above average height. Some 30% – compared with only about 4% in the general population – are 6’2” or taller. Since it’s highly unlikely that a random sample of 500 people would show this great a deviation from the national average, the only explanation is that tallness conveys qualities that are seen as “executive material” even when the tall person might lack those qualities or be merely humdrum. By extension, shorter-than-average people with incredible leadership skills might be passed over in exchange for less-stunning but taller candidates.

What to do about it: This is even tougher than appearance issues, since there’s no good way to increase your height (you can wear lifts, I suppose, but will always risk exposure). Again, confidence is key, and the handful of shorter-than-average CEOs out there (less that 3%) are distinguished by their confidence. Study the behavior of shorter CEOs like Jack Welch or Barry Diller. Think “tall” – be seen, make yourself heard. Shorter CEOs also tend to be those that work their way up in a company, so commit for the long haul; taller CEOs come from executive job searches, where they have less personal history and more “flash” in play. And, of course, you can become an entrepreneur – hopefully you wouldn’t replace yourself with someone taller!

2. People buy brands.

Brand loyalty is one of the major factors influencing people’s buying decisions. Part of this is “following the leader” – if I know the brand, it must be because people are talking about it, thus it must be good.” Part of it is packaging design. And part of it is comfort in previous knowledge – the brand you know and kind of like is a better bet than the one off-brand you don’t know and might love or hate.

What to do about it: Commit yourself to trying something new every so often – maybe every month, replace a favorite brand with a brand you don’t know and see how you like it. You pay a huge premium for branding, often at the expense of quality, so it’s worth it to shed a brand here and there. For durable purchases (as opposed to consumables like food), develop a systematic way of comparing your brand against the competitors – Apple (or Microsoft), Ford (or Chevy), Nike (or Adidas) might not always be the best way for you to go, even if you’ve had good experiences with them in the past.

3. People do, in fact, judge books by their covers.

It’s a publishing industry fact – book covers are what grab and hold attention long enough for a purchase to be made. If it were something about the content, you’d expect authors to have some say, but often they have no contractual right to even see the cover before it’s published, let alone approve or disapprove. (More often, authors can disapprove, but publishers reserve – and usually exercise – the right to ignore the author’s disapproval).

What to do about it: If you’re in the authoring game, let book cover designers do what they do best – they know their domain far better than you do. For buyers, check reviews – lots of handheld software allows you to access Amazon and other sites with reviews while you’re standing in the store. Also, get used to using your library – most libraries have online reservation systems that are nearly as effective as Amazon at getting your chosen books to you in a couple of days. That way, you minimize the risk of blowing money on books that turn out to be less than the cover promises.

4. Most people would rather not choose at all than choose between two equally good options.

This is decision paralysis of a sort – when presented with two equally good options, we freeze. Two options where one is clearly better we handle fine, but not where they are equally good, or for that matter, difficult to compare on the same criteria (the apples v. oranges dilemma).

What to do about it: The standard response to difficult decisions is to list pros and cons, but where things are more or less equal, or where pros and cons aren’t comparable, this isn’t helpful. A better option is to re-frame the decision – the think out a way of looking at the choices in a way that is comparable. One way to do that is to look at goals and objectives – what is the goal you hope to meet by choosing one or the other, and which one is better suited to that goal? This moves you past the immediate characteristics of the objects under consideration – that is, one tastes delicious, the other offers two hours of solid motion picture excitement, so if your goal is to have fun for as long as possible, you might spend your $10 on the movie and not the super-sundae.

5. The best ideas often get lost for lack of funding, competence, or experience.

The people who think up brilliant ideas aren’t always in a position to make them happen. They lack sales skills, people skills, marketing skills, or, quite often, just enough money to bring an innovation to market or the mainstream. Or a start-up gets bought out by a monopolistic corporation simply in order to quash their project.

What to do about it: If you’re in a position to do so, seek out start-ups without the skills to succeed and support them however you can. If you’re an idea person yourself, seek out people with the skills you lack – do not could on your idea to succeed for its greatness.

Well, that about covers it – as before, I’d love to hear what you think is unfair about life, and how you’ve dealt with unfairness in your own life. Let us know about it in the comments.

Dustin M. Wax is a freelance writer and project manager at Stepcase Lifehack. He is also the creator of The Writer's Technology Companion, a site devoted to the tools of the writing trade. When he's not writing, he teaches anthropology and gender studies in Las Vegas, NV. He is the author of Don't Be Stupid: A Guide to Learning, Studying, and Succeeding at College.

Follow him on Twitter: @dwax.

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“Who ever said life is fair? Where is that written? Life isn’t always fair.” – Grandpa, The Princess Bride

Life’s not fair. Our thought processes are controlled by brains that are not always strictly rational. Social and economic forces beyond our control can toss us like plastic bags in the wind. Physical appearances play as large a role, if not larger, in the way we regard others – and the way others regard us. It’s just not FAIR!

With a little thought, I came up with 10 things that just aren’t fair, and some ideas about how to deal with them. I’ve deliberately avoided things having to do directly with race, sex, and other forms of discrimination, hoping instead to focus on more universal unfairnesses. Maybe I’ll come back with a follow-up dealing with those issues at a later date.

1. Packaging makes food taste better.

Strange but true – the way food is packaged, from the label design to the size of portions to the texture of the box, affects our perception of how it tastes. (If you’re academically inclined, you could look at this study of how packaging and taste interact.) Roughly speaking, we identify with certain values the packaging conveys, and that predisposes us to feel more or less favorably about what’s inside.

What to do about it: This is fortunately one of those things where knowing is more than half the battle. Comparing similar foods free of labeling is one way to deal with it – that’s what wine tasters do to avoid biases. And just reminding ourselves not to judge a book – or a food – by its cover helps a lot.

2. People prefer to do business with people they have relationships with, rather than the ones offering the best deal.

We’ll drive miles out of our way to support a local store or a friend’s shop because of the relationship we have with the proprietors. We’ll spend more money on services from friends of friends rather than coldly evaluating all the possible vendors. Again and again, social relationships balance and even outweigh other considerations like cost and convenience.

What to do about it: Develop your social network! While you should certainly focus on providing value in every other way, developing social relationships will often be the thing that gives you the edge over your competitors.

3. Many jobs are never advertised. News travels through social networks instead.

Obviously related to #2 above, this is of major concern given the rough state of employment at the moment. Only a small percentage of jobs are advertised in newspapers and online and even when they are, getting them can still rely heavily on social contacts.

What to do about it: Again, get to work on that social network. Use online networking sites like LinkedIn and niche sites in your field (check out the various networks at Ning) as well as attending (or organizing) local events in your industry. Make sure you announce your availability through every channel available to you – most people will at least try to think whether they know anything suitable for you if they know you’re looking.

4. Attractive people are considered smarter, nicer, and more moral than unattractive people.

“Attractive” is, of course, subjective, but even so: when someone thinks you’re good-looking, they’re more likely to think you’re a good person than if they find you physically unappealing. And vice versa – you’re more likely to think highly of a person you find handsome or pretty than one you find ugly or even average. (Here’s what psychology has to say about our assessment of attractive people.)

What to do about it: Well, one option is plastic surgery, dieting, working out, make-up, etc. but that seems pretty pathetic just to get people to think more highly of you. Since confidence is a big part of what makes people find you attractive, work on projecting confidence in yourself. And, of course, make sure whatever you do has merit in its own right. As far as your opinion of other people, try finding ways to see others as attractive whatever their appearance, and remind yourself when you think poorly of someone that you can easily be mislead by the way they look.

5. We trust other people, even when we think they’re wrong.

Oh, the trials of being a social animal! Far too often , we’ll go with the crowd, even when we think the crowd is wrong. The classic example si a psychological study in which several people, only one of which is not in on it, view three lines of different lengths and asked which is the longest. Everyone says the shortest one is longest, until they get to the actual subject, who knows they’re all wrong but agrees with them anyway so as not so make waves. Other examples include people’s willingness to join lines even when they’re not sure what the line is for, and people’s unwillingness to enter restaurants that are empty.

What to do about it: It’s easy to say “don’t be a sheep” but it’s part of our social nature. We don’t generally want to rock the boat – it’s socially dangerous, and can even be physically dangerous at times. The best we can do most of the time is ask ourselves what, exactly, we have to gain from following other people’s leads. The point isn’t to avoid doing what other people are doing, but to avoid doing it because other people are doing it. If we can determine that we’d do something whether or not others did it, then enjoy!

Be sure to check out part 2 when it’s posted later in the week for more unfair facts of life, including the difference that height makes! And tell us below about the unfair situations you’ve dealt with, and what you did about them.

Dustin M. Wax is a freelance writer and project manager at Stepcase Lifehack. He is also the creator of The Writer's Technology Companion, a site devoted to the tools of the writing trade. When he's not writing, he teaches anthropology and gender studies in Las Vegas, NV. He is the author of Don't Be Stupid: A Guide to Learning, Studying, and Succeeding at College.

Follow him on Twitter: @dwax.

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